The short version: the gas fixed-vs-variable decision works on the same principles as electricity — but with a calmer wholesale market. Gas storage smooths supply, so the variable DRT moves less month to month than the electricity RoLR. The case for locking a fixed gas rate is weaker on average and depends more on your view of the forward curve than on fear of next-month volatility.

The pitch that does not work as well on gas

A gas retailer that uses the same "lock in to avoid spikes" pitch as an electricity retailer is leaning on a much weaker argument. Gas prices do move with the seasons, but the DRT smooths most of that. The bigger gas spikes happen over multi-month wholesale-market shifts (LNG export demand, storage-level changes, weather-driven North American demand) that no fixed contract perfectly hedges against.

Side by side: gas fixed vs DRT

Aspect Fixed gas contract DRT (default)
Rate during termLocked $/GJReset monthly
Premium for certaintyUsually present, but smaller than electricityNone
Exit fee$50 to $200 typicalNone
Bill predictabilityHighModerate
When fixed winsForward curve climbing materially over your term—
When DRT wins—Forward curve flat or falling

Tool: gas fixed-rate premium analyser

Enter the fixed offer and the 12-month rolling DRT average for your area. The tool returns the percent premium for certainty and a verdict.

Premium for certainty
%
Verdict

The non-obvious thing about long gas contracts

A five-year fixed gas contract has the same downside as a five-year electricity contract: if wholesale prices fall, you are locked at an above-market rate with an exit fee to escape. In gas, because the market moves more slowly, the lock might feel comfortable for longer — but the eventual mispricing risk is the same. Short-term locks (1 to 2 years) generally capture most of the value with much less exit-fee risk.

What this means for your household

  • The fixed-vs-DRT math is less urgent than fixed-vs-RoLR for electricity.
  • Use the rolling DRT average, not the latest month, as your comparison anchor.
  • Short terms are usually a better risk-adjusted trade than long ones.
  • Watch monthly admin fees — they can dominate the comparison on smaller gas users.

Frequently asked questions

Not always. Gas volatility is lower than electricity, which reduces the value of fixing. The DRT averages out seasonal swings. Fix when the locked rate is below the rolling DRT average and forward gas prices are climbing.
1, 2, 3, and 5 year terms are all available. Shorter terms are more common because the gas market is calmer — locking long has less defensive value than for electricity.
Yes. Read the cancellation clause. Exit fees are usually $50 to $200 for residential gas contracts.
AECO forward prices are published by commodity-data services and visible on the AESO and NEB-related portals. Most households do not need to track this — the DRT is your practical benchmark.
Electricity, almost always. The energy share of an electricity bill is larger, and the spread between competitive and default rates is wider. Gas savings are real but smaller.